With the death of Kim Jong Il, both North Korean state media and international media have pointed to his twenty-something son Kim Jong Un as successor to Kim Jong Il and before him, Kim Sung Il. North Korea's record on human rights is full of egregious violations, including its gulag system of slave labor prison camps, total repression of religious freedom and political dissent, and near total isolation from the international community. I was reading an opinion piece earlier today that discussed both previous Kims in terms of "degrees of evil" as opposed to mere "badness" or "goodness." I've heard that some people are concerned about possible nuclear aggression.

What are your thoughts? What does the future hold for North Korea?

Nothing will happen. The figurehead of Korea is not where the power lies; it is instead held by the military. As it is unlikely that everyone high-up in the military will die at once, then for the foreseeable future nothing will change.

Change will be glacial. It'll happen eventually.

Aravier wrote:Nothing will happen. The figurehead of Korea is not where the power lies; it is instead held by the military.

Excellent point, however, herein lies one of the risks of this change in leadership. Kim Jung Il was a known quantity to the world, we knew what level of control he had over the military and how willing he was to cooperate with the international community (which was more so than the military). We don't know what Kim Jung Un's relationship with the military is. What little we know of the North Korean military leadership does not paint us a savory picture. I would find it highly, highly unlikely that Kim Jung Il authorized the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan in March 2010, or the shelling of Yeonpyeong in November 2010. I suspect that this was either due to dissension or errant miscommunication within KPA which is reflective of their aggressive intentions.

To add to this, North Korea is a desperate country, it's people are on the verge of starvation and its economic institutions are very unsound; state communism is not effective in a world dominated by free markets. Desperate people do desperate things and although many North Koreans I suspect all just want to live happily, and perhaps even want reunification to see their long detached families, can we really assume this to be reflective of the military leadership? We know about the powerful system of indoctrination that promotes state worship. To what degree has this brainwashed the military leadership? Has it made the military willing to engage in irrational behavior as a result of a power struggle between the KPA and the "civilian" leadership? North Korea's history of abrupt and jarring changes in political dialogue with South Korea speaks to this theory; one day North Korea wants to talk about nuclear dismantlement, the next day they're pointing a thousand artillery pieces at Seoul.

How long can this kind of behavior continue before people start paying a grave toll with their lives? Already North Korean citizens who wish to flee the country that are caught experience what are likely unspeakable horrors at the hands of the North Korean state, how long will this be allowed to continue? What about changes in the international community that induce additional political stress on country that is already on the brink? Will it push them over the edge? Will it push this rogue, nuclear and likely chemically and biologically armed state over the edge? If that happens how many people will die as a result soldiers and civilians alike? Who will be involved? These are relevant questions for my generation, the generation who will be stepping up to the plate of global leadership within the next few decades. If we don't start asking ourselves these kinds of questions now, we will not be prepared to answer them in the future when thousands, possibly millions of human lives depend on our rapid reactions.